Okay there's already been a lot of options. What else could we explore? One of the benefits of agent-based computer simulations is that you can often have a very nice and intuitive visual presentation of your dynamics so you don't have to imagine something. Visually, looking at equations, you can actually make it visible by the simulations. Especially if you have a nice simulation software like we have here with NetLogo. Then you can see how things spatially for example evolve, Schelling's Segregation model verses spatial model and it lands to [inaudible] an interface like that these kind of models, these kind of analysis lend itself to be simulated on this platform. So one question we could now analyze and could add to it is a question extremely important in the current phase of globalization and it's migration. All right, how do people migrate? Where do they migrates? That's important questions. Let's try to like bake that to our model. Just because it's not complicated enough yet. Let's look at Migration. So we start out with our agent here in the lower left corner and we have them in the lower corner. Now, if I press, go what do you think how will they move and in what direction will they move? All right, let's check it out then. So here we have our setup and go and we can see when we go one and two steps, yeah, the first thing we notice, remember they live on a donut. So if you go out here you come back in from the top. If you go out on this side, you come back on the other side of the doughnut right so they live on the torus Mathematical. Then you see when we move, they move diagonally or they move towards the other hill of sugar especially the ones with good vision. So they move over there and you see they move diagonally makes sense. Now, the surprising thing is the individual can only move horizontally and vertically because that's how we program them. An individual cannot move diagonal. But if you look at it, it really looks. It really looks like the society moves diagonally, right? Clearly it looks like that. Even so we programmed you can only go horizontally and vertically, you can never make a diagonal step. So actually the society can do something or appears to us to decide you can do something that the individual does not. So that's a kind of emergence, is an emergence of a diagonal movement that is not possible for any of the individuals but the total is more than the sum of its parts and it can do things than individual cannot. If you look at it feel free to replay it, it really looks like the society moves diagonally. So that's an example of that. Now notice that's a different kind of emergence. Then there merchants I talked about before, I took the emergence of an emergent income distribution so the diagonal movement is like the total substitutes and a limitation of the individual. There is in the previous case of the emergent income distribution, it was the total aggregate individual characteristics. Honestly until now, there is no texted, the word emergence is not really a very lucky word. It's like a placeholder because we do not understand it fully yet. We think it has something to do with a non-linearity. But again, non-linearity is everything that's not linear. So there's a lot of things that are non-linear actually almost everything except the linera is nonlinear. We don't know it has to do with the total. The more different is that qualitatively different but emergence is really not a lucky word but that's all we have under now to explain these phenomenon. It will be up for future scholars for us all is in the future to develop maybe like taxonomy but different kinds of merges. There are these three things through that. These are clearly two different kinds of emergent phenomena. There might be more other different kinds of emergent phenomena but for now, am not going to lead you down that rabbit or I leave it just like this they're different kinds of emergence and it's a place holder for now. It's really can be confusing word. The more you think about it as important as it is especially if you talk about an emergent phenomena like societies. Since I already just mentioned Schelling, let's do that. Let's bring Schelling into the game. Let's bring cultural similarity into the game. This was it's a very sugarscape seems to be a very economic model but maybe there are things stronger than making a good livelihood and satisfying all your economic needs. Let's think about culture. So what you can do here on this slide, we can bring culture into the game. If you start with all agents red, let's start out with that and we run our simulations. We can see that well, that's what you'd be expected. It's a simple sugarscape model to be expected rerun a few generation and now we turn on the culture button. So actually we can see the red and the blue there different cultural preferences might be different race, fans of a different sports club, whatever you might want different religious congregations for example. You can see yes, up there, it's more like the blue down there are more the reddish one and over time as you might have observed now becomes always more extreme. Now, being after a few generations of the 600 generations, you see it's almost. Yes, Schelling was right at the beginning it took some time. It took actually longer because people got stacked. We were very constantly economically. But at the end yes, make a good livelihood is no match to cultural pressure. We want to hang with our peers at the end. There's a lot of, it's not all economics here there are other forces at play and you can study that. Now, you can see for example is a combined it you can look at individual ages. So there's a blue ones still hanging out a red land. So you can look at this agent. For example hypothesis maybe it has to do with the vision. So this is a vision level of three. So it's actually a pretty good vision. So it's pretty a good vision but this person still hangs out in Red land so you can theorize and have your hypothesis. What does it have to do with it somebody hangs out longer with the others or doesn't hang out longer with the others and how can you balance actually economic pressures and maybe you can come up with something, a combination of economics and social desirability cultural adoption that you have a more mixed aside. You can see here after 700, almost 800 takes years eight generations. Eighty nine generations, minimally 89 generations you still have a very mixed society. That means if you find the right mix between economic incentives, cultural incentives, social incentives, you have ever more options on the table in order to solve pressing social issues as it is, social segregation. As a third example of something that might motivate you to move is not only the initial conditions or not only the pressure from others, it might also be a changing landscape, a changing fitness landscape. So for example we could introduce seasons. So let's start our normal model without any seasons doesn't end runs and when do down here is every 40 ticks. Half of the life of a person. We now start a season. As you can see now, it's winter in the north, now, it's winter in the south sides wind in the south right now and sugar grows slower in winter. Now, it's winter in the Northern Hemisphere sugar grows slower in the winter. It's summer in the south that changes. It changes every 40 ticks. If you accelerate that, you can clearly see this changing seasons. Now, we don't have to wait 40 years. We can accelerate that and you see that agents migrate with seasonality which makes sense. Now, you can again hypothesize and see which kind of ages migrate and which kinds of age is not was the metabolism rate, was the vision rate, was this skill with it and follow them and what you will see and what you will find out when you do that is, first of all, the collective as a whole clearly follows the season. But then if you dig deeper, you will see that there are two kind of different agents. Ones, they're more like bears and bear like hibernation. So they like stay put, and are actually maybe they are pretty blind but monopolistically hiding. Look at this one, f like going to the outskirts, all right. There's like, "Stop that I'm not into moving around I'm just staying out here. My metabolism is really good. My vision is really bad. That's too crazy going up and down. I'm just staying out here on this island and that's where I am more than comfortable." They are able to survive like that. Then there are other ones maybe their metabolism pressures them to always get to the more sugar and their vision enables them to be able to do that. So they're more like birds not like bears, but like birds and they have this bird-like migration. You will see them going up, going down, going always where summer is. So they migrate back and forth. So even though you have some behavior on the macroscale and clearly yes, society follows this season, there are different kinds of individual and agent-based modeling allows you to study these different agents and their behavior and figure it and put it into the big picture and then you can come up with all kinds of theories. So this kind for example, would be important to figure out when there's a lot of Green Card issues now who do you want to bring into a country? How should skilled workers migrate where there is a demand. For example, there's a demand for a different sector in a different country. If you take the bird's eye view, so I was working at the United Nations for a long time for 15 years and yes, we have a different perspective. If you look at the world from the perspective of the United Nations, because when I look at society from a whole and then from this perspective, you can see what would be optimal for workers and how would they move. Now, that's different. If you have the perspective from inside a society. One of my bosses, one of my directors at the United Nations Secretariat would always say he was from Brazil and yet this funny kind of humor. He would always say, "The person doesn't think with their head they actually think where they're behind because depending on the chair that they're sitting in they think differently." If you think about this issue for example from a global perspective of the United Nations, you get to one conclusion. If you think of it from a national perspective, you will think through it another conclusion and with agent-based modeling, you can simulate the benefits and drawbacks of these different perspectives by going high, by going to the macro level, and by going into the details of the micro motives of the individual agents. Tired yet of sugarscape, why not? Take a break. It's a lot, continue another time of your time but I cannot let you go without this one. This is extremely important that has to do with pollution because we are extracting sugar here, happy go lucky. But in reality, a very realistic assumption is you extract something especially a resource you also pollute as a negative externality to that. So what if we put in pollution. So the sugar extraction also pollutes. So, first of all, this data and model here, everybody climbs on top of the hill. We can see if there is pollution, there's no pollution. So we change our outlook and can see like with X-rays what's going on. Now, we can turn on our pollution. Wow! Did you see what happened? Everybody dispersed. Let's do that again so you can see that. People do not like to stay in polluted areas that makes sense. That's a realistic assumption as well. So here we go. Everybody climbs on top of the hill extracting sugar. Now, once we turn it on and everybody disperses. So that also hits our society pretty hard. Nobody wants to stay on top here. It hits our income pretty hard. Also even our evolutionary trajectory is affected by that. Because it's not so easy anymore to extract the resources and you might be able to run a in and out of the pollution but definitely don't want to stay there. You can see some others that actually go to some rural areas. I mean, there's not a lot going on up there and down there but at least there's no pollution. So if their metabolism allows them to hang around there, that's actually not a bad idea for you because where there's sugar and where sugar is extracted, pollution is going on. Now, let's turn on a different slide diffusion. So now, I was often in reality also we mainly polluted the cities and the sugar producing cities, the rural areas will also get affected. Now, see if you have pollution. A lot of wind if we have diffusion of pollution. For example through wind, life actually becomes even harder for our age and on sugarscape. They start to terrorize again and they start to hoard at these corners. They really do not want to get further than they have to. They stay put on these terrorists as whoever can get as much sugar as they can but we see this terrorizing again.
